Monday, April 10, 2006
Reality check time.
Reality check time.
Pentagon's former top operations officer, Lt.Gen Greg Newbold, goes public with his criticism against Administration for its failure of planning and execution while at the same time opposes precipitous withdrawal of forces now:
Here is internal staff report from U.S. Embassy and U.S. Military Command- "A Somber Portrait of Iraq Discord":
My commentary about these "insider" reports:
1) Last month, our Administration launched renewed efforts to "sell the war" and attack "the media" for selectively reporting bad news. With sagging support for the war, public criticisms were mounting against the whole operation- especially criticisms of original pretenses for Iraq invasion and the absence of planning for post-war problems such as weapons security. (Historical details in new book: "Cobra II" already referenced in previous mail.) Our Administration has been frantically trying to salvage this Iraq operation but can only continue military presence there by rallying public support which has steadily dissipated with continued bad news. Iraq is at a tipping- point now and massive U.S. pull-out may lead to civil war as: 1) provisional Iraq government lacks national support 2) new Constitution lacks teeth. 3)retribution executions are out of control. 4) Iraq police force likened to "street gangs". My last mail included article which argued for continued U.S. presence in Iraq at this critical tipping-point when street security is so pivotal to Iraq nationalism. http://www.foreignaffairs.org/20060301faessay85201/stephen-biddle/seeing-baghdad-thinking-saigon.html
2) While there was a compelling case for over-throw of Saddam, reckless planning and execution of Iraq invasion has had horrible unintended consequences.
As a retired Army Lt.Col. with Viet Nam memories etched deeply, I have followed this war closely and have concluded that our military was screwed by inept decision-making at the White House. Failed execution resulted in totally unsecured Iraq weapons depots being taken over quickly by opposing forces. Failed execution fueled more jihadists as well as alienated most of the world at a time when U.S. could use some friends. Failed execution paved the way for mounting sectarian violence that put Iraq at the tipping point today. Inept invasion planning contrasts sharply with the Gulf War under Bush senior who is now given tributes for his masterful coalition-building and execution. Administration motto "Support the Troops", is trotted out to neutralize war opponents and is blatantly hypocritical in view of reckless planning and execution that screwed our own troops.
3) The last of Bush's iterations for justifying Iraq invasion has just crumbled; i.e., that "Operation Freedom", the seeding of democracy into heartland of the Middle East, was a major justification for Iraq invasion. That rationale was only trotted out after embarrassment of not finding any WMD, the primary rationale for invasion. Now for a reality check. Exhibit # 1) U.S. invades Afghanistan to get rid of Taliban yet Sharia Law prevails in trial of a Muslim man who converted to Christianity. Conviction means a death sentence. Afghanistan's prime minister cannot overrule historic Sharia Law. Exhibit #2) U.S. promotes Palestinian statehood and free elections there produce Hamas government openly set on destruction of Israel. Exhibit # 3) U.S. invades Iraq and attempts to engineer a pathway to democratic government. Results are a toothless C onstitution, rising sectarian violence bordering on civil war, and no functioning government yet - despite three elections. Exhibit #4) Homeland Security program hastily put together after 9-11 has Grandma forced to stand up from her wheelchair at the airport to seize a finger nail file while huge gaps in homeland security remain wide open. Meanwhile, domestic surveillance program by highly secretive Administration now has our nation fighting itself over what to do about terrorists with a growing number of citizens getting paranoid about their own government. White House stiff- arms attempts of Congressional oversight, blocks release of documents to congressional committees, and undercuts "Freedom of Information Act" by wholesale re-classification of documents formerly unclassified.
4) If there are any doubters that Bush Admin. based Iraq intervention on wishful thinking and nothing else, they should read new book: "Cobra II" by Michael R. Gordon & General Bernard E. Trainer, 2006. Here is a detailed, non-partisan account of Iraq invasion based upon extensive interviews with key players and extensive digging into classified documents. This book made me very angry at this Administration launching a major war based upon wishful thinking, massaged intelligence, rejection of analysis, and absence of post-war planning - against the advise of wiser heads. This past two weeks, Pres. Bush has been on the road to rally support for his reckless venture turned sour. Bush and Sec. Rumsfeld are now routinely attacking the media for bad news coming from Iraq. (Analogy is attacking Newton for gravity and attacking Pasteur for germs). A term used for this protective mind-set is "Group Think" - coined by Irving Janus. Discrepant information that does not conform to the inner group's shared assumptions is kept out which is a recipe for historic fiascos such as : Bay of Pigs, Viet Nam, and now Iraq. Where are you Prof. Janus now that we need you again? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Group_think
5) Unlike the inner circle operating under "Group Think", en-lighted heads outside the inner group can make corrections along the way. Such is the case with Francis Fukuyama, Dean of the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. He was a heavy-weight neocon who is best known for his book: "The End of History" which argued that liberal democracy would prevail over all rival systems. He has recently abandoned his neocon credentials with a self- corrected position that democracy can not simply be injected into a chaotic region. http://blog.washingtonpost.com/worldopinionroundup/2006/03/war_foes_warmed_by_fukuyamas_c.html
6) America is trying to deal with chaotic regions, failed nations, rising world-wide terrorism, failure of U.N., polarized U.S. Congress, and now the ugly aftermath of Iraq invasion based upon wishful thinking. In addition, there is a dangerous phenomenon going on in Washington that we also saw in 1967- the inability to extract from an intractable and unpopular war. Over the course of Viet Nam War, most U.S. casualties occurred after President Johnson and Sec. of Defense McNamara started to have remorse over the decision to commit U.S. military to fight against an insurgency. While many similarities and differences exist between Viet Nam debacle and Iraq debacle, a truly scary similarity is a "mind trap" that Presidents get into while obsessing over their legacy. Presidents cannot bring themselves to admit blunder and feel compelled to push on. The Viet Nam debacle continued to unfold for five more years from the time that both President Johnson and Sec. McNamara felt remorse (acknowledged later). Johnson summed up his dilemma with: "Viet Nam is not going to be lost on my watch". Like Johnson in 1967, Bush Administration is faced with an intractable, unpopular war and cannot just pull out now that Iraq is at a "tipping point" and desperately needs security to have any chance at all . Such a pull-out would be tacit admission of administration blunder - a fate that would define the Bush presidency .
7) Being a Military Superpower is not automatically good for America. For analysis of unintended negative consequences of Superpower status, see: "The New American Militarism- How Americans are Seduced by War"(2005) by Andrew J. Bacevich, Professor of International Relations, Boston U. For reasons why America can not go it alone, see: "The Paradox of American Power- Why the World's only Superpower Can't Go It Alone", 2002, by Joseph S. Nye Jr., Dean of the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard, former Chairman of NSC, and former Asst.Sec. of Defense.
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